Fox Poll in Pennsylvania Bodes Well for Democrats in Three Similar States

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Just yesterday, the New York Times reported that the Republicans were in a panic about the dwindling donations they are seeing across the country, especially given that Democrats are vastly exceeding all expectations. While money doesn’t always indicate enthusiasm or the perception of candidates, it certainly can, and now we see hard numbers in a Fox News Poll coming out of Pennsylvania, a state where two extreme Trump picks are in a race to the bottom in an election that a normal Republican could or even should win. One can feel even better, given that Fox’s polling team is highly respected as one of the most accurate in the business.

From Fox News:

Democrats hold the advantage in battleground Pennsylvania, as GOP candidates haven’t closed the sale with Republican voters. 

In the U.S. Senate race, Democrat John Fetterman holds an 11-point lead over Republican Mehmet Oz, 47%-36%, in a Fox News poll released Thursday. Three percent back independent candidate Everett Stern and 13% support someone else or are undecided.

And from the same Fox News story:

In the race to replace term-limited Gov. Tom Wolf, Keystone voters back Democrat Josh Shapiro over Republican Doug Mastriano by a 50-40 percent margin.

Far more of Shapiro’s supporters (69%) are enthusiastic about backing him than Mastriano’s are about supporting him (49%), and more voters overall have a favorable opinion of Shapiro (51% favorable, 34% unfavorable) than Mastriano (38%-48%).

The Mastriano poll is likely a little less indicative of the “Trump impact,” given that Mastriano’s close association with open and overt, disgusting anti-Semitism has been exposed over the last month. There may be a unique element to Shapiro’s lead.

But the Fetterman/Oz poll seems more reliably indicative of the typical Trump-picked extremist MAGAs against solid Democrats in “purplish” states. Yes, Oz suffers from the carpet bagger label, but with respect to voting MAGA and not saying anything too humiliating, Oz would seem to be “good enough” for most Republicans to gag and pull the lever. But the numbers show they’re unwilling to go that far, especially against a solid, very likable Democratic opponent in John Fetterman.

Each race is unique, but this poll is welcome news in Ohio, where J.D. Vance is plummeting, described as “running the worst campaign possible,” meanwhile, centrist Democrat Rep. Tim Ryan is campaigning hard across the state and outperforming expectations. Ryan has been described as the “type” of Democrat that can win in Ohio.

In Georgia, well, Georgia is very unique. Herschel Walker cannot figure out the number of kids he has fathered, refuses to debate (probably his smartest move), and has had bad revelation after bad revelation emerge, all the while saying things that sound insane because they are insane.  That would be bad enough. But Walker has the misfortune of running against Sen. Ralph Warnock, a man that even Republicans will begrudgingly admit is as fine as any in the Senate and a man who is as deeply intellectual as he is spiritual. Though polling was close in May, most of Walker’s “revelation” and particularly insane statements had yet to emerge. An expert on MSNBC yesterday said that “if the race were held today, Warnock would win.”

And then there is Arizona. Trump pick and unapologetic extremist of extreme MAGAs, Blake Masters, is a dream candidate for the Kari Lake’s of the world (Masters is surging but hasn’t yet won the primary), but Masters terrifies normal people. Like Walker, if Masters wins the primary, he has to beat all-American man, legendary astronaut, and hall of fame husband to Gabby Giffords, Sen. Mark Kelly, who won the seat in 2020.

How much can the three other “potential McConnell nightmares” brought to you by Donald Trump carry away from the Pennsylvania numbers? Normally one would say “next to nothing,” but the dynamic is so similar in each state that it is meaningful, though the numbers will differ.

Additionally, the vote will be more about fury over women’s rights, an out-of-control SCOTUS, and Trump fatigue/fear that – when combined with the money, these numbers bode very well for the Pennsylvania candidates and the “other three” similar races.

 

 



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